"There is a serious danger that fire policy will be developed on the basis of work carried out in the context of the market place rather than being underpinned by research which has been subjected to full process of academic rigour and peer review" Professor D Drysdale (European Vice-Chair, International Association of Fire Safety Sciences) and D T Davis (Chair of the Executive Committee, Institution of Fire Engineers). Fire Engineers Journal 61, 10, 6-7

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


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Bethke, E. (2002) Geographic profiling of Peterborough arson cases of 2000 and 2001: preliminary data analysis and manual crime mapping, dissertation for BA (hons) Department of Forensic Science; APU, Cambridge. www.fitting-in.com/bethke.htm.

 

Abstract

In this paper, the arson data of malicious fires in the years 2000 and 2001 in Peterborough’s Central Ward area was analysed with the main focus on geographical distribution of the crimes.  This was done by organising the data into various relevant subsections – months, day of the week and time of the day.  After having completed that task, the arson data could be plotted onto a street map of the search area to visualise the sites.  The next step entailed a detailed examination of these subsections and crime maps for any noticeable arson centres, i.e. “hot-spots”, and/or for any distinct arson patterns, i.e. crime series.  The areas main arson centres and high-risk times, as well as a few potential serial cases, were determined through this investigation.

 

The methodologies of computerised crime incident analysis were discussed in their applicability and usefulness in arson prevention and reduction initiatives.  In this context, the data requirements for the CrimeStat Analysis Programme were identified.  This led to the conclusion that the data was not detailed enough, making even the map plotting quite awkward.

 

As a final point, the organisation of police patrols around “hot-spot” areas and high-risk times was discussed, in conjunction with the hopefully increased deterring effects through police presence.

 

 

 

 

Acknowledgement

This paper was a product of many people’s guidance and assistance.  I truly appreciate the encouragement I received from everyone and would like to take this opportunity to express my gratitude.

 

Special thanks go to my Project Supervisor, Mr. David Hughes, and my link to the Fire and Rescue Service, Dr. David Baigent, for their continuous support and advice throughout the course of my research.

 

From the Huntingdon Fire Station, I want to thank ADO Kevin Smith for helping me to focus my research on a more valuable study area and for putting me in contact with the relevant fire personnel.

 

Without any data, there would be no project – so, I would like to thank Mr. Wayne Law and Mr. Keith Shillam at Fire Headquarters in Huntingdon for providing me with the necessary arson data and street maps of Central Ward, Peterborough.

 

Finally, I especially want to thank my family for tolerating all the time spent in my “world of arson” during the holidays, and to my friends for unfailingly managing to distract me from my work – it helped, honest!!!

 

 

 

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